SEO Traffic Estimator from CTR by Ranking Position (Monthly Traffic from Search Volume, Gain from Ranking Higher)
Choose what to calculate, enter the monthly search volume and position, and press "Calculate". Your estimated monthly traffic is worked out from a CTR curve by position (the reference curve or your own), and a graph shows the estimated traffic at each position.
The result is a rough estimate of "search volume × CTR at that position". Real CTRs change a lot with search intent, rich results and ads, and whether the search is branded. The CVR and the average order value are optional; enter them to also see estimated conversions and revenue.
Result and graph
Enter the search volume and position in the fields on the left and press "Calculate". The result and a graph of estimated traffic by position will appear here.
Table of Contents
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What you can do on this page
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What is this calculation used for?
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How to Use
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Formulas and figures
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Formula for estimated monthly traffic (from search volume and CTR at a position)
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Formula for the traffic gain from ranking higher
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Formula for the required search volume (from the traffic goal and CTR at the target position)
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Formula for the required position (find the required CTR and compare it with the CTR curve)
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Formula for estimated conversions and revenue (from CVR and average order value, optional)
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Symbols and terms
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Good to know before you start
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How to calculate it in Excel
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How to calculate it in Google Sheets
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How to calculate it in Python
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How to write it in LaTeX and other math languages (copy and paste)
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How to have ChatGPT do the calculation
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DataChef Features
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Related Features
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NumberChef Calculators List
What you can do on this page
- Enter the monthly search volume and your current position (#1 to #10, #11 or lower, or not ranking), and a curve of click-through rate (CTR) by position gives you a rough estimate of your monthly traffic
- Add a target position to see the traffic gain and the percentage change from ranking higher, as in "How many more visits a month if I move from #5 to #3?"
- It also works backward: "What position do I need for 1,000 visits a month?" (the position that reaches your traffic goal) and "If I can rank #3, how much search volume do I need for 1,000 visits a month?" (the required search volume)
- Optionally enter the CVR (%) and the average order value ($) to also get estimated conversions and estimated revenue per month
- Besides the reference CTR curve, you can type in your own site's actual CTRs from Google Search Console in 11 fields (#1 to #10 and #11 or lower)
- A plain-language explanation of the formulas and copy-and-paste formulas for Excel, Google Sheets and Python are all on this page
CTR by position changes a lot with search intent (looking something up or shopping), with rich results (images, videos, Q&A and other special non-ad features on the results page) and ads, and with whether it is a branded search (a search for a company or product name). The reference curve on this page is this site's own curve - "just under 30% at #1, falling smoothly as the position drops, around 2% at #10, and about 1% from page 2 on" - so the results are only rough estimates. If you know your own site's actual CTRs, the custom curve is more accurate. To work out an actual CTR from impressions and clicks, use the "Click-Through Rate (CTR) Calculator" page.
What is this calculation used for?
Choosing which keywords to target (everyday work for SEO and web marketers)
Before writing an article, estimate how many people would come if you ranked near the top for the keyword. For a keyword with 3,000 searches a month, ranking #3 brings about \(3000 \times 11.0 \div 100 = 330\) visits a month. For a keyword with 300 searches a month, even #1 brings only \(300 \times 27.6 \div 100 \approx 83\) visits.
Sort your candidate keywords by this estimated traffic, and you know where to put your effort first. But keywords with more search volume usually have more competition, and you may only reach a lower position, so the trick is to estimate with a position you can realistically reach.
Explaining the value of better rankings inside your company (content improvement proposals)
"Fixing this page will bring more traffic" is not enough to get a budget approved. For a keyword with 20,000 searches a month where you rank #8 now (CTR 3.3%, 660 visits), moving to #4 (CTR 8.4%) gives \(20000 \times 8.4 \div 100 = 1680\) visits, a gain of 1,020 visits a month.
With a 1% CVR and an $80 average order value, that is about 10 more conversions, or roughly $800 more revenue a month, stated in dollars. You cannot promise the ranking will improve, but an estimate of "this much changes if we move up" lets you discuss priorities with numbers.
Working back from a monthly goal to the number of articles (running a content site)
Suppose your goal is "3,000 more visits a month from organic search". If you expect each article to rank #5 (CTR 6.3%) for a keyword with 2,000 searches a month, one article brings \(2000 \times 6.3 \div 100 = 126\) visits, so you need \(3000 \div 126 \approx 23.8\), about 24 articles.
On the other hand, if you want 1,000 visits a month from a single article, reaching it at #5 needs \(1000 \div 6.3 \times 100 \approx 15873.02\), rounded up to at least 15,874 searches (15,873 searches give \(15873 \times 6.3 \div 100 = 999.999\) visits, just short). You can see what size and how many keywords to target for the size of your goal.
Adjusting the estimate with your own site's CTRs (using Search Console)
The reference curve is just one shape this site uses as a standard, and real CTRs differ by site and type of search. In Search Console, take the keywords with an average position around #3 and total them up. The impressions and clicks give you your own site's CTR at #3 (for example, 4,000 clicks from 50,000 impressions is 8%).
Do this for each position and use the results as a custom curve, and your estimates become more accurate. It is especially worth it in fields with many rich results, or for keywords mixed with branded searches such as company names, where the gap from the reference curve is large.
Deciding what is worth writing on a personal blog or side-project site
The same thinking works for a personal blog. For a keyword with 1,000 searches a month where big sites hold the top spots and #8 is about the best you can do, you get about \(1000 \times 3.3 \div 100 = 33\) visits. If you can reach #2 for a less competitive keyword with 500 searches a month, you get \(500 \times 15.8 \div 100 = 79\) visits. A smaller keyword can sometimes bring more people.
Estimating with the position you can reach, not just the size of the search volume, makes it easier to decide which articles to write with the time you have.
Formulas and figures
Formula for estimated monthly traffic (from search volume and CTR at a position)
Figure
Standard notation
(the usual math form)
\(T\)
\(=\)
\(V\)
\(\times\)
\(\mathrm{CTR}_{r}\)
\(\div\)
\(100\)
In words
(symbols replaced with words)
④
\(T\): estimated monthly traffic
\(=\)
①
\(V\): monthly search volume
\(\times\)
②
\(\mathrm{CTR}_{r}\): CTR at position \(r\) (%)
\(\div\)
③
\(100\): percent base
The formula in words
①
Take the
\(V\): monthly search volume
②
multiply it by the
\(\mathrm{CTR}_{r}\): CTR at position \(r\) (%)
③
divide by the
\(100\): percent base
to turn the percent back into a decimal,
④
and you get the
\(T\): estimated monthly traffic
Quick example
For a keyword with 10,000 searches a month where you rank #3 (CTR 11.0% on the reference curve), the estimated monthly traffic is
\(T\): estimated monthly traffic
\(=\)
search volume (10,000)
\(\times\)
CTR at #3 (11.0%)
\(\div\)
\(100\)
\(10000 \times 11.0 \div 100 = 1100\)
Key idea
"Number of searches × share that clicks = number of clicks (traffic)". This is simply the percent equation "part = whole × percent". The CTR is a percent, so divide it by 100 to turn it into a decimal (\(11.0\% = 0.11\)) before you multiply.
On this site's reference curve, the CTR by position is #1 27.6%, #2 15.8%, #3 11.0%, #4 8.4%, #5 6.3%, #6 4.9%, #7 3.9%, #8 3.3%, #9 2.7%, #10 2.4% and #11 or lower 1.0%. #1 gets more than 10 times the CTR of #10. "Same keyword, different position, a completely different amount of traffic" is the basic feel of SEO. Real CTRs change a lot with search intent, rich results and ads, and whether the search is branded, so treat the result as a rough guide and, if you can, enter your actual values from Search Console.
Formula for the traffic gain from ranking higher
Figure
Standard notation
(the usual math form)
\(\Delta T\)
\(=\)
\(T_{\text{target}}\)
\(-\)
\(T_{\text{current}}\)
In words
(symbols replaced with words)
③
\(\Delta T\): traffic gain
\(=\)
①
\(T_{\text{target}}\): estimated traffic at target position
\(-\)
②
\(T_{\text{current}}\): estimated traffic at current position
The formula in words
①
Take the
\(T_{\text{target}}\): estimated traffic at target position
②
subtract the
\(T_{\text{current}}\): estimated traffic at current position
③
and you get the
\(\Delta T\): traffic gain
Quick example
For a keyword with 10,000 searches a month, moving from #5 (CTR 6.3%, 630 visits) to #3 (CTR 11.0%, 1,100 visits) gives a traffic gain of
\(\Delta T\): traffic gain
\(=\)
traffic at #3 (1,100)
\(-\)
traffic at #5 (630)
\(10000 \times 6.3 \div 100 = 630\)
\(10000 \times 11.0 \div 100 = 1100\)
\(1100 - 630 = 470\)
Key idea
\(\Delta\) (delta) is the symbol for "change", so \(\Delta T\) is "how much the traffic \(T\) changes". The traffic at the target position and at the current position both come from the first formula, so the gain can also be written in one step as "search volume × (target CTR − current CTR) ÷ 100" (\(10000 \times (11.0 - 6.3) \div 100 = 470\), the same answer).
If you are not ranking now (not shown at all), your current traffic is 0, so the gain is the whole traffic at the target position. The percentage change is "gain ÷ current traffic × 100", which here is \(470 \div 630 \times 100 \approx 74.6\)%. Moving up "just two places" from #5 to #3 makes the traffic about 1.75 times larger. This formula shows how each step up counts for more near the top.
Formula for the required search volume (from the traffic goal and CTR at the target position)
Figure
Standard notation
(the usual math form)
\(V\)
\(=\)
\(\lceil\)
\(T\)
\(\div\)
\(\mathrm{CTR}_{r}\)
\(\times\)
\(100\)
\(\rceil\)
In words
(symbols replaced with words)
⑤
\(V\): required monthly search volume
\(=\)
\(\lceil\)
①
\(T\): monthly traffic goal
\(\div\)
②
\(\mathrm{CTR}_{r}\): CTR at target position \(r\) (%)
\(\times\)
③
\(100\): percent base
④
\(\rceil\)
The formula in words
①
Take the
\(T\): monthly traffic goal
②
divide it by the
\(\mathrm{CTR}_{r}\): CTR at target position \(r\) (%)
③
multiply by the
\(100\): percent base
(the same as dividing by the percent written as a decimal),
④
round any fraction up, as the \(\lceil\ \rceil\) symbol says,
⑤
and you get the
\(V\): required monthly search volume
Quick example
For a keyword where you expect to rank #3 (CTR 11.0%), the monthly search volume needed for 1,000 visits a month is
\(V\): required monthly search volume
\(=\)
\(\lceil\)
traffic goal (1,000)
\(\div\)
CTR at #3 (11.0%)
\(\times\)
\(100\)
\(\rceil\)
\(1000 \div 11.0 \times 100 = 9090.90\cdots\)
\(\lceil 9090.90\cdots \rceil = 9091\)
Key idea
This is the first formula, "traffic = search volume × CTR ÷ 100", rearranged to find the search volume (the percent equation in the form "whole = part ÷ percent").
If it does not divide evenly, round up. Search volume counts searches, so it is a whole number. With 9,090 searches you get \(9090 \times 0.11 = 999.9\) visits, just short of the goal, so the answer is one more: 9,091. The \(\lceil\ \rceil\) symbol (the ceiling function) stands for this "round up to a whole number" step.
In practice, this becomes a rule for choosing keywords: "to hit this goal, only target keywords with at least about 9,000 searches a month". Search volumes are estimates from tools and change with the season and the month, so it is normal to leave some room.
Formula for the required position (find the required CTR and compare it with the CTR curve)
Figure
Standard notation
(the usual math form)
\(\mathrm{CTR}_{\text{required}}\)
\(=\)
\(T\)
\(\div\)
\(V\)
\(\times\)
\(100\)
In words
(symbols replaced with words)
④
\(\mathrm{CTR}_{\text{required}}\): required CTR (%)
\(=\)
①
\(T\): monthly traffic goal
\(\div\)
②
\(V\): monthly search volume
\(\times\)
③
\(100\): percent base
The formula in words
①
Take the
\(T\): monthly traffic goal
②
divide it by the
\(V\): monthly search volume
③
multiply by the
\(100\): percent base
to turn it into a percent,
④
and you get the
\(\mathrm{CTR}_{\text{required}}\): required CTR (%)
. Of the positions on the CTR curve with a CTR at least this high, the lowest one is the "required position"
Quick example
For a keyword with 10,000 searches a month, the position needed for 500 visits a month is found from
\(\mathrm{CTR}_{\text{required}}\): required CTR (%)
\(=\)
traffic goal (500)
\(\div\)
search volume (10,000)
\(\times\)
\(100\)
\(500 \div 10000 \times 100 = 5\)
\(\mathrm{CTR}_{6} = 4.9 < 5 \le 6.3 = \mathrm{CTR}_{5}\)
Key idea
First find what percent of the searches must click through to reach the goal: the required CTR (the first formula rearranged to find the CTR). Then look along the CTR curve for the positions whose CTR is at least that high. On the reference curve, #6 has 4.9%, which is not enough, and #5 has 6.3%, which is, so the answer is "#5 or higher". At #5 you get \(10000 \times 6.3 \div 100 = 630\) visits, more than the goal of 500.
Positions jump in steps (#1, #2, ...), so there is usually no position at exactly 5%. That is why the answer takes the form "the lowest position that still meets the required CTR", in other words "at this position or higher you reach the goal". If even the #1 CTR falls short of the required CTR, one keyword cannot meet the goal. Then target a keyword with more search volume, or plan to add up traffic from several keywords.
Formula for estimated conversions and revenue (from CVR and average order value, optional)
Standard notation
(the usual math form)
\(\mathrm{CV}\)
\(=\)
\(T\)
\(\times\)
\(\mathrm{CVR}\)
\(\div\)
\(100\)
\(S\)
\(=\)
\(\mathrm{CV}\)
\(\times\)
\(P\)
In words
(symbols replaced with words)
④
\(\mathrm{CV}\): estimated conversions
\(=\)
①
\(T\): estimated monthly traffic
\(\times\)
②
\(\mathrm{CVR}\): conversion rate (%)
\(\div\)
③
\(100\): percent base
⑥
\(S\): estimated revenue
\(=\)
\(\mathrm{CV}\): estimated conversions
\(\times\)
⑤
\(P\): average order value
The formula in words
①
Take the
\(T\): estimated monthly traffic
②
multiply it by the
\(\mathrm{CVR}\): conversion rate (%)
③
divide by the
\(100\): percent base
④
and you get the
\(\mathrm{CV}\): estimated conversions
. Then
⑤
multiply by the
\(P\): average order value
⑥
and you get the
\(S\): estimated revenue
Quick example
With 1,100 visits a month, a 2% CVR and a $50 average order value, the estimated conversions and revenue are
\(\mathrm{CV}\): estimated conversions
\(=\)
traffic (1,100)
\(\times\)
CVR (2%)
\(\div\)
\(100\)
\(S\): estimated revenue
\(=\)
estimated conversions (22)
\(\times\)
average order value ($50)
\(1100 \times 2 \div 100 = 22\)
\(22 \times 50 = 1100\)
Key idea
Together with the first formula, this links the whole funnel "search → click (traffic) → conversion → revenue", where the number of people shrinks at each step. If you estimate the revenue for each keyword, you can compare in dollars which ranking improvements pay off most. That helps you rank your SEO tasks and gives you evidence when you explain the budget inside your company.
The CVR and the average order value differ a lot by type of keyword (looking something up or shopping). This page takes a single CVR for "the traffic from that keyword", so it is best to use the actual values for that keyword (or its landing page) from Search Console and your analytics tool. More detailed traffic calculations are on the "Conversion Rate (CVR) Calculator" page.
Estimated monthly traffic is "search volume × CTR at that position ÷ 100", and the gain from ranking higher is the difference between the traffic at the target position and at the current one. Rearrange this one formula to find the search volume or the CTR, and you can work back to the required search volume (rounded up) and the required position (the lowest position that meets the required CTR). The results are estimates. Keep in mind that real CTRs change a lot with search intent and rich results.
Symbols and terms
Symbols
| \(T\) | T | Estimated monthly traffic. It stands for traffic (visits to a site). It is an estimate of how many people (sessions) come from that keyword's search results in a month, found with \(T = V \times \mathrm{CTR}_{r} \div 100\). |
| \(V\) | V | Monthly search volume. It stands for volume and is how many times the keyword is searched in a month. (Example - for 10,000 searches a month, \(V = 10000\)) |
| \(r\) | r | The ranking position. It stands for rank. Besides #1 to #10, this page treats #11 or lower (page 2 and later) as one position, and "not ranking" (not shown) as a CTR of 0%. |
| \(\mathrm{CTR}_{r}\) | CTR sub r | The click-through rate (%) at position \(r\). CTR stands for click-through rate, and the small \(r\) at the lower right is a subscript for "at position \(r\)". The values for all positions make up the CTR curve. On the reference curve, \(\mathrm{CTR}_{1} = 27.6\), \(\mathrm{CTR}_{3} = 11.0\) and so on. |
| \(\Delta T\) | delta T | The change (gain) in traffic. \(\Delta\) (delta) is a Greek letter that math uses for "change" or "difference". \(\Delta T = T_{\text{target}} - T_{\text{current}}\), and it is negative when the position gets worse. |
| \(\mathrm{CTR}_{\text{required}}\) | CTR required | The click-through rate (%) needed to reach the traffic goal. It is found with \(\mathrm{CTR}_{\text{required}} = T \div V \times 100\), and the lowest position on the CTR curve with at least this CTR is the "required position". |
| \(100\) | one hundred | The base of a percent. Multiply a decimal by 100 to get a percent, and divide a percent by 100 to get the decimal back (\(0.11 \times 100 = 11\%\), \(11\% \div 100 = 0.11\)). |
| \(\lceil\ \rceil\) | ceiling | The symbol for rounding the number inside up to a whole number (the ceiling function). \(\lceil 9090.9 \rceil = 9091\), while a whole number stays as it is, as in \(\lceil 5000 \rceil = 5000\). "Ceiling" refers to the nearest whole number at or above the number. |
| \(\mathrm{CVR}\) | C-V-R | The conversion rate (%). It stands for conversion rate: the share of visits that end in a goal action (a conversion), such as a purchase or a sign-up. |
| \(\mathrm{CV}\) | C-V | The estimated number of conversions. It is short for conversion and is found with \(\mathrm{CV} = T \times \mathrm{CVR} \div 100\). |
| \(P\) | P | The average order value ($). It stands for price and is the average revenue per conversion. |
| \(S\) | S | The estimated revenue ($ per month). It stands for sales and is found with \(S = \mathrm{CV} \times P\). |
Terms
| search volume | How many times a keyword is searched in a set period (usually a month). It is an estimate you can check in Keyword Planner or other SEO tools, and it changes with the season and the month. It is the most basic number for deciding which keywords to target in SEO. |
| ranking position | Where your page appears in the search results for a keyword. It changes with who searches, where and when, so Search Console shows it as the "average position" over a period. This page separates #1 to #10 (page 1), #11 or lower (page 2 and later) and not ranking (not shown). |
| CTR curve (CTR by position) | The click-through rates for each position, lined up. #1 is the highest and the rate drops quickly as the position gets lower, so on a graph it is a curve sloping down to the right. This site's reference curve is #1 27.6%, #2 15.8%, #3 11.0%, #4 8.4%, #5 6.3%, #6 4.9%, #7 3.9%, #8 3.3%, #9 2.7%, #10 2.4% and #11 or lower 1.0%. Real values change a lot with search intent and the layout of the results page, so use your own site's actual values if you have them. |
| estimated monthly traffic | The number of people (sessions) expected to come to your site from that keyword's search results in a month. It is an estimate from "search volume × CTR". In reality the same person may come several times and the number of searches changes from month to month, so it is only a rough guide. |
| traffic gain from ranking higher | The extra traffic you get when your position improves (estimated traffic at the target position − estimated traffic at the current position). The CTR gaps are bigger near the top, so moving from #3 to #1 adds far more than moving from #10 to #8, even though both are two places. |
| organic search | The part of the search results that is not ads. The CTR curve on this page is about CTR by position in organic search. When a results page has many ads, even the #1 organic result sits lower on the screen, so its CTR tends to be lower. |
| search intent | What the searcher wants to know or do. It may be looking something up ("what is ..."), coming to buy a product by name, or finding a company's official site by its name. The CTRs at the top change a lot with the intent (a search for an official site piles onto #1, while clicks on a look-it-up search spread out more). |
| rich results | Special features on the results page other than the usual blue links, such as images, videos, Q&A, maps and featured snippets (a box at the top showing an excerpt from a page). When they appear, the usual links get fewer clicks, which is a main reason CTRs by position move away from the reference curve. |
| branded search (brand keywords) | A search for a particular site by a company, product or service name. If that site is #1, most people click it, so the #1 CTR is often much higher than the reference curve (for example, more than half of searchers click it), while other sites get very few clicks. |
| Google Search Console | A free tool from Google that shows your site's impressions, clicks, CTR and average position in search results. If you total up your actual CTR for each position and enter it as a custom curve, you can tune this page's estimates to your own site. |
| Keyword Planner | A Google Ads tool for checking the estimated monthly search volume of each keyword. It is made for advertising, but it is also widely used to check search volume when choosing keywords for SEO. |
| rounding up | Rounding to the next whole number whenever there is a fractional part (9090.9 → 9091). When you look for a count that is "enough", like the required search volume, rounding down or to the nearest number can leave you short of the goal, so you round up. |
| conversion (CV) | An action a site counts as a success toward its goal, such as a purchase, a sign-up, a demo request or an inquiry. Each site decides what counts as a conversion. The share of traffic that converts is the conversion rate (CVR). |
| average order value (AOV) | The average revenue per conversion (per order). Multiply it by the estimated conversions to get the estimated revenue. It is used to compare the value of keywords in dollars. |
| percent equation | "Part = whole × percent" and its two rearranged forms, "percent = part ÷ whole" and "whole = part ÷ percent". With traffic as the part, search volume as the whole and CTR as the percent, the first, third and fourth formulas on this page are exactly these three forms. |
Good to know before you start
Here is what helps you use the calculation on this page with real understanding, not just by pressing the button.
| Percents (Grade 6) |
|
| The percent equation (Grades 6–7) |
|
| Multiplying and dividing decimals (Grades 5–6) |
|
| Rounding and rounding up (Grade 4) |
|
| Inequalities and comparing values (Grade 6) |
|
| Expressions and rearranging equations (Grades 7–8) |
|
How to calculate it in Excel
Copy the whole table below and paste it into cell A1 in Excel. It works as is.
Table to find the estimated monthly traffic
| Monthly search volume V | 10000 |
| CTR at the position (%) | 11 |
| Estimated monthly traffic T | =B1*B2/100 |
Table to find the traffic gain from ranking higher
| Monthly search volume V | 10000 |
| CTR at current position (%) | 6.3 |
| CTR at target position (%) | 11 |
| Current estimated traffic | =B1*B2/100 |
| Estimated traffic at target position | =B1*B3/100 |
| Traffic gain ΔT | =B5-B4 |
Table to work out the required search volume (rounded up)
| Monthly traffic goal T | 1000 |
| CTR at target position (%) | 11 |
| Required monthly search volume V | =ROUNDUP(B1/B2*100,0) |
Table to find the required CTR (to work out the required position)
| Monthly traffic goal T | 500 |
| Monthly search volume V | 10000 |
| Required CTR (%) | =B1/B2*100 |
Table to find estimated conversions and revenue
| Estimated monthly traffic T | 1100 |
| CVR (%) | 2 |
| Average order value P ($) | 50 |
| Estimated conversions | =B1*B2/100 |
| Estimated revenue S ($) | =B4*B3 |
After pasting, the upper rows of column B are your inputs and the last row is calculated automatically.
For example, the first table shows 1100 in B3 (1,100 visits a month), the second shows 470 in B6 (a gain of 470 visits), the third shows 9091 in B3 (a required search volume of 9,091), the fourth shows 5 in B3 (a required CTR of 5%) and the fifth shows 22 in B4 and 1100 in B5 (22 conversions and $1,100). The ROUNDUP function in the third table rounds up to a whole number. Compare the required CTR from the fourth table with the reference curve (#1 27.6, #2 15.8, #3 11, #4 8.4, #5 6.3, #6 4.9, #7 3.9, #8 3.3, #9 2.7, #10 2.4, #11 or lower 1) and read off the lowest position at or above that value (#5 for 5%). Just replace the inputs in column B with your own numbers.
For example, the first table shows 1100 in B3 (1,100 visits a month), the second shows 470 in B6 (a gain of 470 visits), the third shows 9091 in B3 (a required search volume of 9,091), the fourth shows 5 in B3 (a required CTR of 5%) and the fifth shows 22 in B4 and 1100 in B5 (22 conversions and $1,100). The ROUNDUP function in the third table rounds up to a whole number. Compare the required CTR from the fourth table with the reference curve (#1 27.6, #2 15.8, #3 11, #4 8.4, #5 6.3, #6 4.9, #7 3.9, #8 3.3, #9 2.7, #10 2.4, #11 or lower 1) and read off the lowest position at or above that value (#5 for 5%). Just replace the inputs in column B with your own numbers.
How to calculate it in Google Sheets
Copy the whole table below and paste it into cell A1 in Google Sheets. It works as is.
Table to find the estimated monthly traffic
| Monthly search volume V | 10000 |
| CTR at the position (%) | 11 |
| Estimated monthly traffic T | =B1*B2/100 |
Table to find the traffic gain from ranking higher
| Monthly search volume V | 10000 |
| CTR at current position (%) | 6.3 |
| CTR at target position (%) | 11 |
| Current estimated traffic | =B1*B2/100 |
| Estimated traffic at target position | =B1*B3/100 |
| Traffic gain ΔT | =B5-B4 |
Table to work out the required search volume (rounded up)
| Monthly traffic goal T | 1000 |
| CTR at target position (%) | 11 |
| Required monthly search volume V | =ROUNDUP(B1/B2*100,0) |
Table to find the required CTR (to work out the required position)
| Monthly traffic goal T | 500 |
| Monthly search volume V | 10000 |
| Required CTR (%) | =B1/B2*100 |
Table to find estimated conversions and revenue
| Estimated monthly traffic T | 1100 |
| CVR (%) | 2 |
| Average order value P ($) | 50 |
| Estimated conversions | =B1*B2/100 |
| Estimated revenue S ($) | =B4*B3 |
The same formulas as in Excel (including ROUNDUP) work as is. Copy the whole table, paste it into cell A1, and replace the inputs in column B with your own numbers.
How to calculate it in Python
import math
# This site's reference CTR curve (%): index 0 is #1 ... index 9 is #10, index 10 is #11 or lower
ctr_curve = [27.6, 15.8, 11.0, 8.4, 6.3, 4.9, 3.9, 3.3, 2.7, 2.4, 1.0]
def ctr_of(rank):
"""CTR (%) at position rank (1 to 11; 11 = #11 or lower). 0 (not ranking) is 0%"""
if rank == 0:
return 0.0
return ctr_curve[rank - 1]
volume = 10000 # monthly search volume
current_rank = 5 # current position
target_rank = 3 # target position
traffic_current = volume * ctr_of(current_rank) / 100 # current estimated monthly traffic
traffic_target = volume * ctr_of(target_rank) / 100 # estimated monthly traffic at target position
gain = traffic_target - traffic_current # gain from ranking higher
print(f"Current estimated traffic: {traffic_current}")
print(f"Estimated traffic at target position: {traffic_target}")
print(f"Traffic gain: {gain}")
# Required search volume: from the traffic goal and the CTR at the target position (rounded up)
target_traffic = 1000
# round(..., 6) guards against floating-point error making the round-up one too high
required_volume = math.ceil(round(target_traffic * 100 / ctr_of(target_rank), 6))
print(f"Required search volume: {required_volume}")
# Required position: the lowest position with at least the required CTR (search from #11+ up to #1)
target_traffic2 = 500
required_ctr = target_traffic2 / volume * 100
required_rank = None
for rank in range(11, 0, -1):
if ctr_of(rank) >= required_ctr:
required_rank = rank
break
print(f"Required CTR: {required_ctr}% Required position: #{required_rank} or higher")
# Estimated conversions and revenue (optional)
cvr = 2 # CVR (%)
price = 50 # average order value ($)
cv = traffic_target * cvr / 100
sales = cv * price
print(f"Estimated conversions: {cv} Estimated revenue: ${sales}")
Runs with the standard library only. In this example, the current estimated traffic is 630.0, the traffic at the target position is 1100.0, the gain is 470.0, the required search volume is 9091, the required CTR is 5.0% with a required position of #5 or higher, and the estimated conversions and revenue are 22.0 and $1100.0. Replace ctr_curve at the top with your own site's actual values to calculate with a custom curve.
How to write it in LaTeX and other math languages (copy and paste)
Formula for estimated monthly traffic (from search volume and CTR at a position)
T = V × CTRᵣ ÷ 100
T = V \times \dfrac{\mathrm{CTR}_{r}}{100}
<math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="block">
<mrow>
<mi>T</mi>
<mo>=</mo>
<mi>V</mi>
<mo>×</mo>
<mfrac><msub><mi>CTR</mi><mi>r</mi></msub><mn>100</mn></mfrac>
</mrow>
</math>
T = V xx CTR_r/100
volume*ctr/100
T := V*CTR_r/100;
T = V*CTR_r/100;
T = V × CTR_r/100
Formula for the traffic gain from ranking higher
ΔT = T_target − T_current
\Delta T = T_{\text{target}} - T_{\text{current}}
<math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="block">
<mrow>
<mi>Δ</mi><mi>T</mi>
<mo>=</mo>
<msub><mi>T</mi><mtext>target</mtext></msub>
<mo>−</mo>
<msub><mi>T</mi><mtext>current</mtext></msub>
</mrow>
</math>
Delta T = T_"target" - T_"current"
trafficTarget - trafficCurrent
DeltaT := T_target - T_current;
DeltaT = T_target - T_current;
ΔT = T_target − T_current
Formula for the required search volume (from the traffic goal and CTR at the target position)
V = ⌈T ÷ CTRᵣ × 100⌉
V = \left\lceil \dfrac{T}{\mathrm{CTR}_{r}} \times 100 \right\rceil
<math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="block">
<mrow>
<mi>V</mi>
<mo>=</mo>
<mo>⌈</mo>
<mfrac><mi>T</mi><msub><mi>CTR</mi><mi>r</mi></msub></mfrac>
<mo>×</mo>
<mn>100</mn>
<mo>⌉</mo>
</mrow>
</math>
V = |~ T/CTR_r xx 100 ~|
Ceiling[traffic/ctr*100]
V := ceil(T/CTR_r*100);
V = ceil(T/CTR_r*100);
V = ⌈T/CTR_r × 100⌉
Formula for the required position (find the required CTR and compare it with the CTR curve)
CTR_required = T ÷ V × 100
\mathrm{CTR}_{\text{required}} = \dfrac{T}{V} \times 100
<math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="block">
<mrow>
<msub><mi>CTR</mi><mtext>required</mtext></msub>
<mo>=</mo>
<mfrac><mi>T</mi><mi>V</mi></mfrac>
<mo>×</mo>
<mn>100</mn>
</mrow>
</math>
CTR_"required" = T/V xx 100
traffic/volume*100
CTR_required := T/V*100;
CTR_required = T/V*100;
CTR_required = T/V × 100
Formula for estimated conversions and revenue (from CVR and average order value, optional)
CV = T × CVR ÷ 100, S = CV × P
\mathrm{CV} = T \times \dfrac{\mathrm{CVR}}{100},\quad S = \mathrm{CV} \times P
<math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="block">
<mrow>
<mi>CV</mi>
<mo>=</mo>
<mi>T</mi>
<mo>×</mo>
<mfrac><mi>CVR</mi><mn>100</mn></mfrac>
<mo>,</mo>
<mspace width="1em"/>
<mi>S</mi>
<mo>=</mo>
<mi>CV</mi>
<mo>×</mo>
<mi>P</mi>
</mrow>
</math>
CV = T xx CVR/100, S = CV xx P
{traffic*cvr/100, traffic*cvr/100*price}
CV := T*CVR/100; S := CV*P;
CV = T*CVR/100; S = CV*P;
CV = T × CVR/100, S = CV × P
How to have ChatGPT do the calculation
You are an assistant for estimating SEO traffic. Do the following calculation by actually running Python code, and base your answer only on the numbers from the execution result (do not answer by mental math or guessing). Use this click-through rate (CTR) curve by position: #1 27.6%, #2 15.8%, #3 11.0%, #4 8.4%, #5 6.3%, #6 4.9%, #7 3.9%, #8 3.3%, #9 2.7%, #10 2.4%, #11 or lower 1.0%. A keyword has a monthly search volume of 10,000, and my page currently ranks #5. Find each of the following: 1. The current estimated monthly traffic (search volume × CTR at #5 ÷ 100) 2. The estimated monthly traffic if the page moves up to #3, and the traffic gain from that move 3. The monthly search volume needed for 1,000 visits a month if the page ranks #3 (traffic goal ÷ CTR at #3 × 100, rounded up to a whole number) 4. The position needed for 500 visits a month with a monthly search volume of 10,000 (the lowest position with a CTR of at least the required CTR = 500 ÷ 10,000 × 100) Show the formulas you used and the numbers from the execution result.
How to Use
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1Enter your numbersType the numbers you want to calculate with into the input fields
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2CalculatePress the "Calculate" button
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3Check the resultThe result appears on the spot. The same page also explains the idea behind the calculation and the formula
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